What type of threat is a threat related to the natural surroundings of an enterprise?

Threat assessment means different things to different people. Security professionals, police, judges, psychologists, and school counselors all use the term and conduct tasks they describe as threat assessment. These approaches are all predictive in nature, but very different.

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threat assessment approaches

Take a moment to think about what threat and risk assessment means to you, or what problem you are hoping that threat assessment will help you solve.

Are you looking to:

1. plan for and protect facilities and critical infrastructure against terrorist attacks, insider threats, or natural disasters;

2. help your security personnel identify and react to threatening individuals such as active shooters or terrorists;

3. protect your computer networks, systems, and servers from attacks by malicious actors;

4. identify, assess, and intervene with a person who may commit targeted or instrumental violence (e.g., a school shooting); or

5. assess the overall likelihood that a specific individual for violent behavior.

This post isn’t meant to be a comprehensive review of each method. Rather, it is meant to define and help you identify threat assessment training and resources.

Now, let’s take a deeper dive into each threat and risk assessment approach.

1. The Security Threat and Risk Assessment

To people who work in the security or protection industry, threat assessment is the first step in a risk and vulnerability analysis. This threat assessment task involves assessing the various security risks associated with a particular location. It covers a broad range of threats, including: natural threats (tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, earthquakes), criminal threats (theft from location, violence against staff), terrorists (active shooter, vehicle, and person-borne improvised explosive devices), and potential accidents.  Once threats are identified, organizations can plan for how they will protect their workers, facilities, supplies, and critical infrastructure.

Threat & Risk at an airport

For a security risk threat assessment, let’s take an example of a terminal at an airport. Potential threats to an airport could include natural disasters (such as a snowstorm, earthquake or hurricane), an organized terrorist attack, other criminal acts (e.g., employees smuggling in contraband into the airport), or an accident (such as a computer failure causing the airport communication systems to shut down).  Each of these threats will require a different response.

This security threat risk assessment includes not only identifying potential threats, but also evaluating the likelihood of occurrence for each--just because something can happen, doesn’t mean it will.

The vulnerability assessment

Following the security risk threat assessment is the vulnerability assessment, which has two parts. First, it involves a determination of the assets as risk (e.g., people, buildings, equipment). Part of this includes an estimation of the financial loss that would be incurred if the given location was successfully attacked and stopped providing service. Second, it includes an assessment of the level of attractiveness of the target (in the case of intentional attacks) and the level of existing defenses against each threat.

In the case of a large airport in a busy metropolitan area without nearby airports, any suspension of services at the airport would create a significant disruption. In contrast, suspension of services at a small county airport would create less of a disruption. As an example of attractiveness, a small county airport operation may be a less attractive target for this reason.

Potential threats, impacts associated with loss of the facility, and assessments of vulnerability are reviewed in combination as part of a risk analysis. The risk analysis also involves the study of existing and necessary countermeasures to protect against and mitigate potential threats. This analysis reveals opportunities for upgrading or improving existing countermeasures.

Learn about Security Threat Risk Assessment

If you are interested in learning more about risk analysis, here are some great resources:

• The “Risk Management Process for Federal Facilities” Guide from the United States Department of Homeland Security(DHS); and

• The DHS and State Department’s “Guide to Critical Infrastructure and Security Resilience.”

2. Active Threat Assessment

For security professionals, threat assessment is also used to describe a process through which your operational personnel observe and identify potential, immediate, or imminent threats (e.g., active shooters, terrorists, criminals). At Second Sight, we use the term active threat assessment to describe the process of systematic observation to identify threats. These threats could be against your clients, their facilities, or your personnel.

The Active Threat Assessment Methodology

Active threat assessment involves a focused observation of behaviors and actions. It is a threat assessment methodology by which an observer (such as one of your security officers) systematically observes their environment, identifies potentially suspicious individuals (also known as persons of interest), and assesses the potential threats posed by these individuals.

A person of interest (POI) is an individual who is a target for further observation. They may become a target due to suspicious activity or a display of threatening behavior.

Further observation of the POI involves an assessment of threat indicators. Threat indicators are visual behaviors that indicate an individual might be a threat. For example, they might be trying to avoid notice, or they could show visible signs that they are carrying a weapon.

These assessments, in combination, allow for the identification of active threats.  

Potential Users of Active Threat Assessment

Second Sight’s threat assessment approach can be used by a broad range of security personnel, including:

1. Executive and personal protection specialists;

2. Uniformed security providing foot and vehicle patrol at a range of facilities (churches, airports, schools, public events, gaming facilities, etc.);

3. Camera surveillance personnel; or

4. Security personnel conducting access control or responding to incidents.

To learn more about active threat assessment, read our post about active threat assessment, join our mailing list, or enroll in one of our online active threat assessment training courses.

3. The Cyber-security Threat and Risk Assessment

The same threat risk assessment and analysis process can be applied to cyber-security. A cyber-security threat risk assessment can involve protecting information (e.g., the Personally Identifiable Information of your customers), networks (e.g., the internet at your offices), software (e.g., your customer management system), and hardware (e.g., the laptops and desktops of your employees). The basic steps of a cyber-security threat risk assessment are:

1. characterize the type of system that is at risk;

2. identify threats to that system (unauthorized access, misuse of information, data leakage/exposure, loss of data, disruption of service);

3. determine inherent risks and impacts;

4. analyze and identify existing controls that may prevent, mitigate, detect, or compensate for potential threats. Assess the extent that existing controls successfully mitigate the threats.

5. determine the likelihood of a threat occurring based on current controls; and

6. calculate a risk rating based on a combination of impact and likelihood of occurrence.

After the assessment, it is then possible to implement or improve controls based on the higher risk threats to cyber-related infrastructure.

If you are interested in learning more about the cyber-security threat risk assessments, we recommend you review the following resources:

• National Institute of Standards and Technology’s (NIST) “Guide for Conducting Risk Assessments”

• International Association of Chiefs of Police’s (IACP) Law Enforcement Cyber Center

• The RAND Corporation’s extensive body of research on cyber-security

• The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA)

4. Threat Assessment for Instrumental Violence

The National Association of School Psychologists (NASP) describes a broad spectrum of activities for identifying and intervening with potentially violent individuals who appear at risk for committing instrumental violence.

Instrumental violence is when an individual commits (or threatens to commit) a specific attack, such as a mass shooting. In your case, it could involve an employee who has made threats against other staff members or has been involved in recent altercations at work. For executive and personal protection, it could involve individuals who have made threats against your protectee.

A noted authority on this approach is the U.S. Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC). In a recent report titled “Mass Attacks in Public Places,” they noted many of the attackers in 2019 had similar backgrounds, including: a personal grievance; history of criminal behavior; substance abuse or mental health symptoms; or other stressors (such as financial instability). Many of these attackers also had communicated or elicited concern from others prior to the attack. These situational and behavioral factors can serve as flags of individuals who may commit instrumental violence.

Threat Assessment in Schools

The NTAC developed the national model for threat assessment in a school setting. While NTAC’s focus is on schools, their approach is applicable to other facilities as well.  This approach has five steps:

1. establish a multi-disciplinary threat assessment team;

2. define behaviors that require intervention (e.g., carrying weapons);

3. establish and provide training on a central reporting system;

4. determine a threshold for intervention; and

5. establish an investigative-driven threat assessment process that focuses on a range of factors, including but not limited to: motives, communications, weapons access, stressors, emotional and developmental issues, and protective factors.

Potentially threatening individuals are identified from information and referrals. Then, these individuals are assessed for the extent they may commit an attack. Those at-risk for violence are targeted with a variety of interventions. In the case of an imminent attack, immediate measures would be necessary to control the individual.

When it comes to school violence prevention, the NASP provides suggested guidelines for administrators and crisis teams. Further, a 2018 article reviews the major findings from the research on the federal school threat assessment model and provides guidance on how to implement the model effectively.

If you would like to learn more about this type of threat assessment, more information is available from the sources below, and an internet search will reveal a variety of other resources on the topic:

• The US Secret Service National Threat Assessment Center

• The Association of Threat Assessment Professionals

5. The Violence Threat Risk Assessment

Violence threat risk assessments are generally legal and clinical in nature, and are typically used to estimate the likelihood of future violent behavior by an individual. This is somewhat different than the instrumental violence approach described above, though it still involves identification of risk factors and intervention strategies. The violence threat risk assessment focuses on assessing an individual’s predilection for violence more generally, and is not related to a specific attack against a specific target. These threat risk assessments include things like domestic violence lethality assessments or algorithmic risk assessment tools.

This approach may not be something you or your personnel perform directly. More often, these assessments are conducted by clinical professionals who are qualified to administer a battery of tests that evaluate one’s likelihood of committing a violent act. These violent threat risk assessments can include professional judgment of the clinician as well as actuarial-based assessments. The latter uses predictive algorithms that assess risk factors and determine the probability of future violence.

Violence threat risk assessments are used to guide decisions at various points in the criminal justice system. For example, they are often used in determining pretrial or parole release decisions, release from psychiatric facilities, civil commitment and criminal sentencing decisions, and for inmate classification within correctional facilities.

There are many different types of threat risk assessment tools. For example, one well-known and widely-adopted tool is the Public Safety Assessment (PSA). Though, please note that there are a fair amount of criticisms regarding the accuracy and fairness of different algorithmic techniques. If you are looking for research and support to conduct threat assessments related to individual risk and violence, we encourage you to access resources available from:

• The Center for Disease Control (CDC)

• The American Psychological Association (APA)’s Guidelines for Psychological Evaluation and Assessment

• The Bureau of Justice Assistance (BJA)’s Public Safety Risk Assessment Clearinghouse

What’s Next?

Depending on your needs, any of these approaches to threat and security assessment may be relevant to you or your personnel. As a next step, take a deeper dive into some of these resources and continue your quest to learn more about threat and risk assessment. All of these approaches are essential to protecting our community and keeping people safe.

If you are interested in learning more about active threat assessment, check out our active threat assessment for security professionals now.

References

Advanced Psychological Associates. (2020). APA Guidelines for Psychological Assessment and Evaluation. Retrieved January 2022 from https://www.apa.org/about/policy/guidelines-psychological-assessment-evaluation.pdf

Arnold Ventures. (2017). Public Safety Assessment: A Risk Tool That Promotes Safety, Equity, and Justice. Retrieved January 2022 from https://www.arnoldventures.org/stories/public-safety-assessment-risk-tool-promotes-safety-equity-justice/

Blank, R.M., and Gallagher, P.D. (2012). Guide for Conducting Risk Assessments. The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Retrieved January 2022 from https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/Legacy/SP/nistspecialpublication800-30r1.pdf

Botha, A. (2021). Chapter 28: Prevention of Terrorist Attacks on Critical Infrastructure.In the Handbook of Terrorism Prevention and Preparedness. Retrieved January 2022 from https://icct.nl/app/uploads/2021/04/Handbook-Ch-28-Botha-Prevention-of-Terrorist-Attacks-on-Critical-Infrastructure.pdf

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