What effect can real shocks have on the long run aggregate supply curve quizlet?

A rapid and unexpected shift in the AD curve (spending).

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    •A positive shock to spending must either increase inflation or the real growth rate.
    •In the short run, an increase in spending will be split between increases in inflation and increases in real growth.
    •In the long run, the real growth rate is equal to the Solow rate, which is not influenced by inflation.
    •In the long run, therefore, an increase in spending will increase only the inflation rate.

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    1. Social Science
    2. Economics
    3. Macroeconomics

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    Terms in this set (77)

    Anticipated changes are

    fully expected by economic participants.
    Decision makers have time to adjust to them before they occur.

    Unanticipated changes

    catch people by surprise.

    The aggregate demand (AD) curve indicates

    the quantity of goods & services that will be demanded at alternative price levels.

    An increase in aggregate demand (a shift of the AD curve to the right) indicates

    that decision makers will purchase a larger quantity of goods and services at each different price level.

    A decrease in aggregate demand (a shift of the AD curve to the left) indicates

    that decision makers will purchase a smaller quantity of goods and services at each different price level.

    The following factors will cause a shift in aggregate demand outward (inward):

    • an increase (decrease) in real wealth
    • a decrease (increase) in the real interest rate
    • an increase in the optimism (pessimism) of businesses and consumers about future economic conditions
    • an increase (decline) in the expected rate of inflation
    • higher (lower) real incomes abroad
    • a reduction (increase) in the exchange rate value of the nation's currency

    An increase in real wealth, such as would result from a stock market boom, would

    increase aggregate demand, shifting the entire curve to the right (from AD0 to AD1).

    In contrast, a reduction in real wealth

    decreases aggregate demand, shifting AD left (from AD0 to AD2).

    Moves toward optimism tend to

    increase AD

    moves toward pessimism tend to

    decrease AD.

    When considering shifts in aggregate supply, it is important to distinguish between the

    long run and short run.

    Shifts in LRAS: A long run change in aggregate supply indicates

    that it will be possible to achieve and sustain a larger rate of output.

    A shift in the long run aggregate supply curve (LRAS) will cause

    the short run aggregate supply (SRAS) curve to shift in the same direction.

    Shifts in LRAS are an alternative way of indicating

    there has been a shift in the economy's production possibilities curve.

    Shifts in SRAS: Changes that temporarily alter the

    productive capability of an economy will shift the SRAS curve, but not the LRAS curve.

    Factors that increase (decrease) LRAS:

    • increase (decrease) in the supply of resources
    • improvement (deterioration) in technology and productivity
    • institutional changes that increase (reduce) efficiency of resource use

    Factors that increase (decrease) SRAS:

    • a decrease (increase) in resource prices — hence, production costs
    • a reduction (increase) in expected inflation
    • favorable (unfavorable) supply shocks, such as good (bad) weather or a reduction (increase) in the world price of key imported resource

    Such factors as an increase in the stock of capital or an improvement in technology will expand an economy's potential output and

    shift LRAS to the right (note that when the LRAS curve shifts, so too does SRAS).

    Such factors as a reduction in resource prices or favorable weather would

    shift SRAS to the right (note that here the LRAS curve will remain constant).

    Expansions in the productive capacity of the economy, like those resulting from capital formation or improvements in technology,

    shifts an economy's LRAS curve to the right.

    When growth of the economy is steady and predictable, it will be

    anticipated by decision makers.

    Anticipated increases in output (LRAS) need not disrupt

    macroeconomic equilibrium.

    Consider the impact of capital formation or a technological advancement on the economy.

    • Both LRAS and SRAS increase (to LRAS2 and SRAS2).
    • Full employment output expands from YF1 to YF2.
    • A sustainable, higher level of real output is the result.

    In the short-run, output will deviate from full employment capacity as prices in the goods and services market deviate from

    he price level that people expected.

    Impact of unanticipated increase in AD:

    • Initially, the strong demand and higher price level in the goods & services market will temporarily improve profit margins.
    • Output will increase, the rate of unemployment will drop below the natural rate, and output will temporarily exceed the economy's long-run potential.
    • With time, however, contracts will be modified and resource prices will rise and return to their competitive position relative to product prices.
    • Once this happens, output will recede to the economy's long-run potential.

    In response to an unanticipated increase in AD for goods and services (shifting AD from AD1 to AD2), prices

    rise to P105 and output will increase to Y2, temporarily exceeding full-employment capacity.

    (unanticipated increase) With time, resource market prices, including labor,

    rise due to the strong demand. Higher costs reduce SRAS1 to SRAS2.

    (unanticipated increase) In the long-run, a new equilibrium at a higher price level, P110 , and output

    consistent with long-run potential will occur.

    So, the increase in demand only temporarily expands output.

    So, the increase in demand only temporarily expands output.

    • Weak demand and lower prices in the goods & services market will reduce profit margins. Many firms will incur losses.
    • Firms will reduce output, the unemployment rate will rise above the natural rate, and output will temporarily fall short of the economy's long-run potential.
    • With time, long-term contracts will be modified.
    • Eventually, lower resource prices and lower real interest rates will direct the economy back to long-run equilibrium, but this may be a lengthy and painful process.

    The short-run impact of an unanticipated reduction in AD (a shift from AD1 to AD2) will be

    a decline in output (to Y2), and a lower price level (P95).
    Temporarily, profit margins decline, output falls, and unemployment rises above its natural rate.

    (unanticipated decrease) In the long-run, both weak demand and excess supply in the resource market lead to lower resource prices (including labor) resulting in

    an expansion in SRAS (shifting it from SRAS1 to SRAS2).
    A new equilibrium at a lower price level, P90, and an output consistent with long-run potential will result.

    A supply shock is

    an unexpected event that temporarily increases or decreases aggregate supply.
    = Unanticipated changes in short-run aggregate supply (SRAS)

    Impact of Unanticipated Increase in SRAS

    • SRAS shifts to the right - output temporarily exceeds the economy's long-run potential.
    • Since the temporarily favorable supply conditions cannot be counted on in the future, the economy's long-term production capacity will not be altered.
    • If individuals recognize that they will be unable to maintain their current high level of income, they will increase their saving. Lower interest rates, and additional capital formation may result.

    Consider an unanticipated, temporary, increase in SRAS, such as may result from

    a bumper crop from good weather.

    The increase in aggregate supply (to SRAS2) would lead to

    a lower price level P95 and an increase in current GDP to Y2.
    As the supply conditions are temporary, LRAS persists.

    Impact of Unanticipated Decrease in SRAS

    • SRAS shifts to the left - output falls short of economy's long-run potential temporarily.
    • If an unfavorable supply shock is expected to be temporary, long-run aggregate supply will be unaffected.
    • Households may reduce their current saving (dip into past savings).

    Suppose there is an adverse supply shock, perhaps as the result of a crop failure or a sharp increase in the world price of a major resource, such as oil.

    the higher resource prices shift SRAS to the left in the product market; in the short-run, price level rises to P110 and output falls to Y2.
    What happens in the long-run depends on whether the supply shock is temporary or permanent.

    If the adverse supply shock is temporary, resource prices will eventually

    fall in the future, shifting SRAS2 back to SRAS1, returning equilibrium to (A)

    If the adverse supply factor is permanent, the productive potential of the economy will

    shrink (LRAS shifts left and Y2 becomes YF2) and (B) will become the long-run equilibrium.

    The basic AD-AS model focuses on

    how the general level of prices influences the choices of business decision makers.

    If the price level in the product market changes, this indicates that

    this price has changed relative to other markets.

    This structure implicitly assumes that the actual and expected rates of inflation are initially

    zero.

    When inflation is present AD-AS model can be

    recast in a dynamic setting.

    When the actual and expected rates of inflation are equal:

    • Inflation will be built into long term contracts.
    • Prices will rise in both resource and product markets, but the relative price between the two will be unchanged.

    An actual rate of inflation that is less than anticipated is the equivalent of a

    reduction in the price level. As a result, firms will incur losses and reduce output.

    An actual rate of inflation that is greater than anticipated is the equivalent of

    an increase in the price level. Profits will be enhanced and firms will expand output.

    The AD-AS model indicates that unanticipated changes will

    disrupt macro equilibrium and result in economic instability.

    Recessions occur because

    prices in the goods and services market are low relative to the costs of production and resource prices.

    The two causes of recessions are:

    • unanticipated reductions in AD, and,
    • unfavorable supply shocks.

    An unsustainable boom occurs when

    prices in the goods and services market are high relative to resource prices and other costs.

    The two causes of booms are:

    • unanticipated increases in AD, and,
    • favorable supply shocks.

    The AD-AS model indicates that there are two forces that will help direct an economy back to long-run equilibrium:

    1. Changes in real resource prices
    2. Changes in real interest rates

    Changes in real resource prices:

    • During a recession, real resource prices will tend to fall because the demand for resources will be weak and the rate of unemployment high.
    • During a boom, real resource prices will tend to rise as demand for resources will be strong and the unemployment rate low.

    Changes in real interest rates:

    • During a recession, real interest rates will tend to decline because of the weak demand for investment. The lower interest rates will stimulate AD and help direct the economy back to full employment.
    • During a boom, real interest rates will tend to rise because of the strong demand for investment. The higher rates will retard AD and help direct the economy back to full employment.

    1. Which of the following will reduce aggregate demand?
    a. an increase in real wealth
    b. lower real incomes of the country's foreign trade partners
    c. increased consumer and business optimism about the future
    d. an increase in the expected rate of inflation

    b

    2. An increase in the long-run aggregate supply curve shifts
    a. both LRAS and AD to the right.
    b. both LRAS and SRAS to the right.
    c. both LRAS and AD to the left.
    d. only LRAS to the right.

    b

    3. During recessions, interest rates tend to fall because
    a. consumers attempt to borrow money to make up for their falling income.
    b. business borrowing for investment purposes tends to fall during recessions.
    c. lower real resource prices create profit opportunities for banks.
    d. recessions shift the economy's long-run aggregate supply curve to the left.

    b

    4. In the short run, equilibrium output in the goods and services market may be either above or below the full-employment level, but in the long run, it

    a. must be less than full-employment output.
    b. must be greater than full-employment output.
    c. will move to full-employment output.
    d. depends on aggregate demand, not just long-run aggregate supply.

    c

    5. Which of the following is most likely to result from an unanticipated increase in short-run aggregate supply due to favorable weather conditions in agricultural areas?

    a. an increase in the inflation rate
    b. an increase in the unemployment rate
    c. a decrease in the price level
    d. a decrease in the natural rate of unemployment

    c

    6. Which of the following is most likely to accompany an unanticipated reduction in aggregate demand?
    a. an increase in the price level
    b. a decrease in unemployment
    c. an increase in real GDP
    d. an increase in the unemployment rate

    d

    7. Which of the following is most likely to accompany an unanticipated increase in short-run aggregate supply?
    a. an increase in real GDP
    b. a decrease in real GDP
    c. an increase in the price level
    d. an increase in the unemployment rate

    a

    8. In the aggregate demand/aggregate supply model, an economy operating below its long-run potential capacity will experience

    a. falling real wages and resource prices that will increase SRAS, moving the economy back toward full employment.
    b. rising interest rates that will increase SRAS, moving the economy back toward full employment.
    c. inflation that will stimulate additional spending and thereby restore full employment.
    d. a prolonged economic depression unless consumer optimism is increased.

    a

    9. Refer to Figure 10-19. Good weather allows agricultural output to double.
    a. The aggregate demand curve would shift to the right.
    b. The aggregate demand curve would shift to the left.
    c. The short-run aggregate supply curve would shift to the right.
    d. The short-run aggregate supply curve would shift to the left.

    c

    10. Refer to Figure 10-19. There is an increase in the expected rate of inflation.
    a. The aggregate demand curve would shift to the right.
    b. The short-run aggregate supply curve would shift to the left.
    c. The price level would rise and real GDP would remain the same.
    d. All of the above are correct.

    d

    11. Refer to Figure 10-19. Consumers and businesses all suddenly decide that the future looks much better than it previously had.
    a. The aggregate demand curve would shift to the right.
    b. The aggregate demand curve would shift to the left.
    c. The short-run aggregate supply curve would shift to the right. d. The short-run aggregate supply curve would shift to the left.

    a

    12. Refer to Figure 10-19. A major technological advance occurs.
    a. The aggregate demand curve would shift to the right.
    b. The aggregate demand curve would shift to the left.
    c. Both the short-run and the long-run aggregate supply curves would shift to the right.
    d. Both the short-run and the long-run aggregate supply curves would shift to the left.

    c

    13. Which of the following would not cause a shift in the short-run aggregate supply curve? a. a supply shock b. a decrease in the real interest rate c. a decrease in the expected rate of inflation d. an increase in resource prices

    b

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